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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 47 for 1 yard (90-G.Stewart; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model