Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-A.Trammell to JAX 29 for 15 yards (58-A.Ajiake). IND-38-C.Lammons was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model