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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model