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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 10-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 9, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP