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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model