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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to IND 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-A.Gould to IND 19 for no gain (26-An.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model