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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 10-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model