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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2025-12-07 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
36.6%
BAL
63.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PIT

Calvin Anderson T Out Knee
Kyle Dugger S Out Hand
Derrick Harmon DT Out Knee

BAL

Ar'Darius Washington S Out Achilles
Tavius Robinson LB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 27
–
BAL 22

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 FG BAL (11:02) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 0 – BAL 3
  • Q1 07:19 TD PIT (7:19) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 3
  • Q2 10:41 FG PIT (10:41) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 10 – BAL 3
  • Q2 06:10 TD PIT (6:10) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:21 TD BAL (:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-21-C.Clark, Defensive Holding, declined. PIT 17 – BAL 9
  • Q3 11:01 FG PIT (11:01) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman. PIT 20 – BAL 9
  • Q3 07:40 TD BAL (7:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – BAL 15
  • Q3 03:38 TD PIT (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 26 – BAL 16
  • Q4 13:46 FG BAL (13:46) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 27 – BAL 19
  • Q4 07:15 FG BAL (7:15) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 27 – BAL 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (11:02) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (8:46) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 83-Co.Heyward left guard to BAL 2 for 2 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:02) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 32 for 3 yards (39-K.Jackson).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:14) 3-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:34) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 20 for 9 yards (27-T.Tampa).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:41) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (11:01) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (13:46) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:31) 3-C.Waitman punts 50 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 32 for 10 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 88%

    (8:49) 22-D.Henry left end to PIT 20 for 4 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (7:15) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:53) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 22 for 4 yards (33-J.Sawyer).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 48 for 6 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 44 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 36.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:47) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to BAL 42 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson).