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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 5 at the 8
Baltimore Ravens 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27
What Actually Happened
(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
The Three Options
GO
+2.02 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.83 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.30 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
