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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:34) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 20 for 9 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model