Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 – Baltimore Ravens 22

(5:53) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 22 for 4 yards (33-J.Sawyer).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.42 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model