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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 5

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP