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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP