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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 32 for 3 yards (39-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.32 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model