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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 3-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to BAL 11, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP