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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 24
Baltimore Ravens 19 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27
What Actually Happened
(8:49) 22-D.Henry left end to PIT 20 for 4 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
The Three Options
GO
+2.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.43 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP
KICK
+1.22 EP
- 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
