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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 22 – Pittsburgh Steelers 27

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 48 for 6 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model