BAL @ MIN — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Kevin O'Connell

Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

BAL

69.9%

MIN

30.1%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to BAL: J.J. McCarthy (MIN) -0.429 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.289 EPA/dropback
MIN offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
BAL offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
BAL defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
BAL on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24

–

MIN 18

Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BAL

No players on the report.

MIN

Josh Oliver TE Out Foot

Jeff Okudah CB Out Concussion

Aaron Jones RB Questionable Shoulder

Theo Jackson S Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27

–

MIN 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:50 TD MIN (9:50) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – MIN 6
Q1 04:29 FG BAL (4:29) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – MIN 7
Q2 11:00 FG MIN (11:00) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. BAL 3 – MIN 10
Q2 01:14 FG BAL (1:14) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 6 – MIN 10
Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 33-T.Loop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 9 – MIN 10
Q3 10:22 FG BAL (10:22) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 12 – MIN 10
Q3 08:09 TD BAL (8:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 43-J.Hill up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 18 – MIN 10
Q3 02:20 FG MIN (2:20) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. BAL 19 – MIN 13
Q4 10:44 TD BAL (10:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 25 – MIN 13
Q4 03:28 TD MIN (3:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – MIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP

p(convert) 62%

(13:25) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 14 for 5 yards (24-M.Starks; 88-C.Kolar).
Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

(4:29) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 63

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 61%

(2:14) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to BAL 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to MIN 43, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

(11:00) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(9:18) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 16 for no gain (38-K.Martin).
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 10

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

(1:14) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(:40) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to BAL 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-L.Wester to BAL 25 for 19 yards (96-T.Batty).
Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

(10:22) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 46

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 47%

(5:50) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to 3-J.Addison (3-C.Awuzie). PENALTY on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 46.
Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%

(5:00) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q3 MIN 4th & 15 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

(2:20) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

(7:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Jefferson (2-N.Wiggins).
Q4 BAL 4th & 17 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:41) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to MIN 35, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 7 for 28 yards (2-N.Wiggins) [3-C.Awuzie].
Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

(3:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 65 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 27 for 12 yards (35-J.Hummel). PENALTY on MIN-6-D.McGlothern, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 15.
Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 33-A.Jones [45-M.Green].