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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 27 for 12 yards (35-J.Hummel). PENALTY on MIN-6-D.McGlothern, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at MIN 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.55 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model