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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to MIN 9, Center-46-N.Moore. 4-M.Price to MIN 14 for 5 yards (24-M.Starks; 88-C.Kolar).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP