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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 33-T.Loop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model