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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 16-W.Reichard 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model