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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 93

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to MIN 35, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.45 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.63 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 93, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 51, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model