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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep right to 1-J.Nailor to BAL 7 for 28 yards (2-N.Wiggins) [3-C.Awuzie].

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.19 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP