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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.09 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model