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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP