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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.03 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP