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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Ben Johnson
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYG
40.0%
CHI
60.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
CHI 25
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

Graham Gano K Out Neck
Paulson Adebo CB Out Knee
Chauncey Golston DE Out Neck
John Michael Schmitz C Out Shin
Darius Muasau LB Out Ankle
Beaux Collins WR Out Neck
Victor Dimukeje LB Doubtful Shoulder
Jermaine Eluemunor T Questionable Pectoral
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Out Hand
Dominique Robinson DE Out Ankle
Josh Blackwell CB Out Concussion
Jahdae Walker WR Out Concussion
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Calf
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) (No Huddle) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 13:09 TD NYG (13:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:07 FG NYG (:07) 37-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – CHI 7
  • Q3 12:23 TD NYG (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – CHI 7
  • Q3 00:38 FG CHI (:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NYG 17 – CHI 10
  • Q4 10:21 FG NYG (10:21) 37-Y.Koo 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. NYG 20 – CHI 10
  • Q4 03:59 TD CHI (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CHI 16
  • Q4 01:54 TD CHI (1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 78%

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 31%

    (9:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 47 for -4 yards (sack split by 98-M.Sweat and 99-G.Dexter).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:44) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to CHI 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 28 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%

    (:48) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%

    (11:29) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%

    (5:32) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bellinger (9-J.Brisker). CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 33%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle to NYG 39 for 9 yards (8-J.Holland).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 72%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Swift.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (:07) 37-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 22%

    (7:36) 6-J.Dart right end to CHI 43 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.36 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (10:21) 37-Y.Koo 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:51) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Swift. NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%

    (6:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 26 yards to CHI 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (49-T.Edmunds) [49-T.Edmunds].