Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NYG defense: +0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- NYG offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 10
NYG
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) (No Huddle) 25-K.Monangai right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – CHI 6
- Q2 13:09 TD NYG (13:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CHI 7
- Q2 00:07 FG NYG (:07) 37-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – CHI 7
- Q3 12:23 TD NYG (12:23) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – CHI 7
- Q3 00:38 FG CHI (:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. NYG 17 – CHI 10
- Q4 10:21 FG NYG (10:21) 37-Y.Koo 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. NYG 20 – CHI 10
- Q4 03:59 TD CHI (3:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CHI 16
- Q4 01:54 TD CHI (1:54) 18-C.Williams scrambles left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – CHI 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 78%
(12:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 31%
(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 47 for -4 yards (sack split by 98-M.Sweat and 99-G.Dexter).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYG 4th & 14 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(3:44) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to CHI 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 28 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%
(:48) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 36Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 65%
(11:29) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 19Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 92%
(5:32) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bellinger (9-J.Brisker). CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 33%
(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle to NYG 39 for 9 yards (8-J.Holland).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 72%
(1:13) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 4-D.Swift.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(:07) 37-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(9:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 22%
(7:36) 6-J.Dart right end to CHI 43 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(:38) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.36 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(10:21) 37-Y.Koo 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan. Penalty on CHI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 57Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(8:51) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Swift. NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 57%
(6:20) 12-J.Gillan punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 73 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 26 yards to CHI 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 54 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (49-T.Edmunds) [49-T.Edmunds].
See the full breakdown →
