Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 4 at the 30
Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 0
What Actually Happened
(12:21) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.
The Three Options
GO
+1.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.63 EP
- 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
KICK
+1.17 EP
- 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
- 22% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT
+0.22 EP
- New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
