Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(3:44) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to CHI 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 12-D.Duvernay to CHI 28 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 69, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model