4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 57

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 4-D.Swift. NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model