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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 49

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at NYG 47 for -4 yards (sack split by 98-M.Sweat and 99-G.Dexter).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model