Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 54

New York Giants 20 – Chicago Bears 24

(:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 17-W.Robinson (49-T.Edmunds) [49-T.Edmunds].

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.31 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -1.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model