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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 19

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep right to 82-D.Bellinger (9-J.Brisker). CHI-9-J.Brisker was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.58 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model