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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 36

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 19-T.Taylor punts 25 yards to NYG 11, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP