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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2025-11-09 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NE
43.7%
TB
56.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TB on 7 more days rest than NE
  • TB offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.165 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.190 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NE

Christian Elliss LB Questionable Hip
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Toe
Kayshon Boutte WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Haason Reddick LB Out Ankle
Chris Godwin Jr. WR Out Fibula
Markees Watts LB Out Hand
Bucky Irving RB Out Foot
Luke Goedeke T Questionable Foot
Luke Haggard T Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 28
–
TB 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:30 TD TB (11:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 00:11 TD NE (:11) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 18-K.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-C.Braswell]. NE 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 07:19 FG TB (7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 7 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:02 TD NE (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – TB 10
  • Q3 14:22 TD NE (14:22) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – TB 10
  • Q3 04:19 TD TB (4:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – TB 16
  • Q4 01:43 TD NE (1:43) 32-T.Henderson left end for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – TB 16
  • Q4 00:38 TD TB (:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 15-T.Johnson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28 – TB 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:19) 95-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 26-T.Jennings left tackle to NE 45 for 2 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%

    (6:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 5, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 6 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:55) 17-B.Baringer punts 38 yards to TB 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to NE 36, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones to NE 46 for 10 yards (81-R.Miller). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 38.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-22-C.Woods, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 14.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (11:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (7:19) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 8-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NE 31, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 30. NE-25-M.Jones was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to TB 8, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 15 for 7 yards (24-D.Pettus). PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 48%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (27-Z.McCollum).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (12:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 24 for 5 yards (22-C.Woods). ** Injury Update: NE-15-M.Mapu has returned to the game.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to NE 42, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 83%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].