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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 42

New England Patriots 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short middle to 8-S.Diggs (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model