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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NE 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-22-C.Woods, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP