Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to NE 31, Center-86-E.Deckers. 25-M.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 30. NE-25-M.Jones was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model