Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 67

New England Patriots 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to TB 8, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 15 for 7 yards (24-D.Pettus). PENALTY on TB-29-C.Izien, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at TB 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model