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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to NE 30 for -3 yards (21-J.Hawkins) [97-M.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model