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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 71

New England Patriots 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-K.Johnson to TB 24 for 5 yards (22-C.Woods). ** Injury Update: NE-15-M.Mapu has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP