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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 55

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model