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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2025-10-26 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

SF
42.2%
HOU
57.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Jake Brendel C Out Hamstring
Bryce Huff DE Out Hamstring
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Brock Purdy QB Out Toe
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Luke Gifford LB Questionable Hamstring
Deommodore Lenoir CB Questionable Quadricep
Spencer Burford T Questionable Knee

HOU

Christian Kirk WR Out Hamstring
Nico Collins WR Out Concussion
Alijah Huzzie CB Out Knee
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee
Jaylin Smith CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 15
–
HOU 26

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:24 FG HOU (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 3
  • Q2 15:00 FG HOU (15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 07:36 TD HOU (7:36) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 81-J.Higgins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – HOU 12
  • Q2 01:02 FG HOU (1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 0 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:29 TD SF (:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – HOU 16
  • Q3 07:35 TD HOU (7:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: HOU-17-B.Berrios has returned to the game. SF 7 – HOU 22
  • Q3 00:33 TD SF (:33) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – HOU 23
  • Q4 09:44 FG HOU (9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. SF 15 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (8:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right guard to SF 23 for 1 yard (48-T.Bethune).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:47) 7-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 13 for -3 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (15:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:04) 7-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Noel to HOU 20 for 14 yards (88-J.Tonges).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (1:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%

    (13:45) 7-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:05) 7-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to SF 1, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 93 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:02) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to 50, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to HOU 44 for 9 yards (5-J.Pitre).