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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 7-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model