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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 15

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP