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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 7-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP