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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 11

Houston Texans 23 – San Francisco 49ers 15

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model