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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 24

Houston Texans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud right guard to SF 23 for 1 yard (48-T.Bethune).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model