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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 15 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to HOU 44 for 9 yards (5-J.Pitre).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP